03 julio 2012

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Todos conocen como comienzan las guerras, nadie nunca sabe como terminan. Esa es una premisa muy vieja y casi siempre cumplida. ¿Qué ocurrirá? Es imprevisible, pero lo cierto es que la tensión crece día a día, sumada claro está la situación de Siria y lo que pasará con Egipto.

Este momento fue preparado ya hace mucho tiempo por el imperio y sus aliados. Saddam Hussein fue derrocado por su incapacidad para enfrentar a los Guardias Revolucionarios de Irán y para establecer una frontera militar contra los Ayatolas. pero para remplazar el petroleo iraní se necesitaba más que las reservas iraquíes y fueron por Libia. Ahora se establece el bloqueo petrolero contra la potencia islámica chiita, Irán desde ya aumentó considerablemente su presencia militar en la zona, cosa que los EE.UU interpretan como una amenaza directa a sus intereses, en definitiva la excusa para desatar las hostilidades es clara. Pero la gran pregunta es ¿Se atreverán?  



EE UU lanza una advertencia a Irán al acumular fuerzas en el Golfo Pérsico

Irán y EE UU vuelven a lanzarse advertencias en el golfo Pérsico. Mientras el primero prepara una legislación para impedir el paso de Ormuz a los países que le están sometiendo a un embargo y realiza maniobras militares con misiles, el segundo ha reforzado su presencia militar en esas aguas con el objetivo de impedir el cierre del estrecho por el que sale una quinta parte del petróleo mundial. De momento se trata de una mera toma de posiciones, pero los países vecinos no se arriesgan. Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU) y Arabia Saudí acaban de poner en funcionamiento sendos oleoductos para evitar un eventual bloqueo. Además, ha desplazado al Golfo su primera base de operaciones flotante, un transporte anfibio reconvertido y barco de atraque bautizado como Ponce. Su primera misión es servir como centro logístico para el eventual desminado, pero el Poncedispone de quirófano, helipuerto y camarotes para tropas, lo que le permite albergar a fuerzas de operaciones especiales.
Aunque los navíos son la parte más visible, el despliegue, que se inició la pasada primavera, incluye también un aumento de aviones de combate F-22 y F-15C en dos bases de la zona. Según el diario estadounidense, los nuevos aparatos refuerzan la capacidad de los ya desplegados contra las baterías de misiles que Irán ha instalado en sus costas y que podrían amenazar la navegación a través de Ormuz, además de poder alcanzar objetivos dentro de ese país. Las fuentes citadas por el Times describen el despliegue como un mensaje a Irán para que “ni se le ocurra pensar en cerrar el estrecho”. También mencionan que trata de “tranquilizar a Israel”, cuyos dirigentes han amenazado con atacar las instalaciones nucleares de Irán si la comunidad internacional no logra que frene su programa de enriquecimiento de uranio. Sin embargo, los propios autores de la información reconocen que la concentración de fuerzas “supone riesgos significativos, incluida la posibilidad de que los poderosos Guardianes de la Revolución [más conocidos como pasdarán] decidan responder a ese aumento”.

De hecho, la tensión entre Irán y Occidente ha aumentado tras el fracaso de la última ronda de conversaciones nucleares y la entrada en vigor el pasado domingo del embargo de la UE al petróleo iraní. Esa medida, unida a la prohibición de asegurar petroleros que transporten su crudo y a las sanciones estadounidenses a los países que hagan transacciones con su Banco Central, está ahogando la principal fuente de divisas de Teherán. Según cálculos de los analistas, el descenso en las exportaciones de petróleo va a privarle de 2.500 millones de dólares al mes. Además, ha desplazado al Golfo su primera base de operaciones flotante, un transporte anfibio reconvertido y barco de atraque bautizado como Ponce. Su primera misión es servir como centro logístico para el eventual desminado, pero el Poncedispone de quirófano, helipuerto y camarotes para tropas, lo que le permite albergar a fuerzas de operaciones especiales.

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De hecho, la tensión entre Irán y Occidente ha aumentado tras el fracaso de la última ronda de conversaciones nucleares y la entrada en vigor el pasado domingo del embargo de la UE al petróleo iraní. Esa medida, unida a la prohibición de asegurar petroleros que transporten su crudo y a las sanciones estadounidenses a los países que hagan transacciones con su Banco Central, está ahogando la principal fuente de divisas de Teherán. Según cálculos de los analistas, el descenso en las exportaciones de petróleo va a privarle de 2.500 millones de dólares al mes. Pero los países árabes vecinos de Irán no pueden arriesgarse. El estrecho de Ormuz es la principal salida para el petróleo de Arabia Saudí, EAU, Irak y Kuwait, y para el gas de Qatar. En 2011, entre 13 y 15 petroleros con un total de 17 millones de barriles de crudo cruzaron diariamente esa estrecha vía de agua de apenas 34 kilómetros de ancho en su tramo más estrecho. Resulta difícil ver cómo podría diferenciar Irán cuáles de ellos iban destinados a la UE.

EAU acaba de inaugurar un oleoducto entre los pozos de Habshan y el puerto de Fujairah. El conducto tiene una capacidad para 1,8 millones de barriles diarios, lo que permitirá que Abu Dhabi exporte de su producción y reduzca significativamente su dependencia de Ormuz. Los medios locales han destacado además que la nueva infraestructura, que tiene 360 kilómetros y ha costado 10.000 millones de dírhams (unos 2.200 millones de euros), va abaratar el transporte del crudo y los seguros. Por su parte, el vecino Arabia Saudí, el mayor productor y exportador del mundo, ha reabierto un viejo oleoducto construido por Irak durante la guerra que mantuvo con Irán en los años ochenta del siglo pasado. El llamado Oleoducto Iraquí en Arabia Saudí (más conocido por sus siglas en inglés, IPSA), que atraviesa la península Arábiga de Este a Oeste, fue confiscado por Riad en 2001 como compensación por las deudas contraídas por Bagdad. Desde entonces se ha usado para transportar gas a las centrales eléctricas de la costa saudí del mar Rojo. Pero a raíz de que el pasado enero Irán agitara el fantasma del cierre de Ormuz, los saudíes han estado acondicionándolo. El IPSA podría transportar 1,65 millones de barriles diarios a los depósitos de almacenamiento de Muajjiz, en la zona industrial de Yanbu. Esa cantidad se sumaría a los 5 millones de barriles que pueden transportar los dos oleoductos de la Petroline, que nunca se han utilizado a plena capacidad y uno de los cuales también está en la actualidad dedicado al gas. (El país)



Irán destruye hipotéticas bases enemigas en maniobras aéreas y de misiles

El Cuerpo de Guardianes de la Revolución de Irán aseguró hoy que habían destruido siete hipotéticas bases de «fuerzas ajenas a la región» en unas maniobras aéreas y de misiles de un alcance de hasta 1.300 kilómetros, informaron las agencias locales. Según la agencia oficial, IRNA, las maniobras «Gran Profeta 7», que comenzaron ayer y finalizarán mañana, se llevan a cabo en diversos lugares de Irán y las supuestas bases destruidas se encontraban en el desierto de Lut, en la provincia central de Semnan.

Las autoridades de Irán han reiterado que el territorio de Israel y los buques y bases de EE.UU. en las zonas de Oriente Medio, el golfo Pérsico y Asia Central están al alcance de sus misiles y que atacarán esos objetivos si sufren una agresión. Irán está sometido a sanciones de la ONU, de EEUU y la UE por su programa nuclear. Washington y Tel Avil han amenazado con atacar territorio iraní si no frena sus actividades atómicas, a lo que Teherán ha respondido que, en ese caso, dará una respuesta «aplastante» y podría cerrar el estratégico estrecho de Ormuz.

Mientras algunos países, con EE.UU. a la cabeza, sospechan que el programa nuclear iraní tiene una vertiente armamentista destinada a fabricar armas atómicas, Teherán asegura que es exclusivamente civil y pacífico, acorde con el Tratado de No Proliferación (TNP) nuclear. Los misiles lanzados hoy en las maniobras de la Guardia Revolucionaria eran tierra-tierra de distinto tipo y de 300, 500, 800 y 1.300 kilómetros de alcance, según la agencia local Mehr.Esta agencia explica que los misiles fueron lanzados contra «modelos de bases de potencias de fuera de la región» y que, después, los objetivos fueron bombardeados por aviones de la Guardia Revolucionaria y aeronaves no tripuladas.

«Los misiles que tenemos tienen un alcance de hasta 2.000 kilómetros (capaces de alcanzar Israel), pero en estas maniobras los hemos usado de hasta 1.300 kilómetros», dijo a los periodistas, cerca del lugar de los ejercicios, el genera Amir Ali Hayizadeh, jefe de la Fuerza Aeroespacial de los Guardianes de la Revolución.

Según él, «todos los misiles fueron lanzados con éxito a los objetivos situados en el desierto de Semnan».

«Estas maniobras son un mensaje a los países osados de que el Cuerpo de Guardianes de la Revolución se enfrentará a esos matones junto con una decidida y unida nación iraní para dar una respuesta decidida a cualquier problema», concluyó Hayizadeh. En su rueda de prensa de los martes, el portavoz del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Ramin Mehmanparast, comentó estas maniobras y dijo que el mensaje de los ejercicios es que «Irán tiene total autoridad y la preparación necesaria para establecer la seguridad en el golfo Pérsico y el tráfico de petróleo en el estrecho de Ormuz».

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

Heya! I understand this is sort of off-topic
but I had to ask. Does operating a well-established blog like yours take
a massive amount work? I'm brand new to blogging however I do write in my diary everyday. I'd like to start a blog
so I can easily share my experience and views online.
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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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Anónimo dijo...

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